Will Earth 2100 Hot One

The threat of global warming can still be eliminated in a very large number if nations cut emissions of greenhouse gases, which trap heat, up to 70 percent this century, according to a new analysis.

Although global temperatures will rise, some aspects of climate change on the most potentially dangerous, including a large loss of Arctic sea ice and frozen ground and striking rise in sea levels, can be avoided.
The study, led by scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), to be published next week in Geophysical Research Letters. The research was funded by the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation, NCAR’s sponsor.

“This study shows we can no longer avoid striking warming during this century,” says NCAR scientist Warren Washington, the lead researcher.
The global average temperature has been warmer close to 1 degree celsius (almost 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era. Most of the warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions produced by humans, mainly carbon dioxide.

Heat-trapping gases that have risen from pre-industrial era levels of about 284 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere to be more than 380 ppm today.
While these studies show that additional warming of 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) may be the beginning for dangerous climate change, the EU has called for a dramatic reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The US Congress is also discussing the issue.

In order to assess the impact of such reductions on the climate in the world, Washington and colleagues conducted a global supercomputer studies with the use of the Community Climate System Model, which is based at NCAR.
They assumed that carbon dioxide levels can be maintained at 450 ppm at the end of this century. That number comes from the US Climate Change Science Program, which has set 450 ppm as the target could be achieved if the world rapidly adjust conservation measures and new green technologies to cut emissions dramatically.

By contrast, emissions are now on the path to the level of 750 ppm by 2100 if left unchecked.
The team’s results show that the carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm was arrested on, global temperatures will rise by 0.6 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) above current record until the end of this century.

Instead, the study showed, the temperature will rise almost four times that number, so 2.2 degrees Celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) above current note, if the exhaust gas allowed to continue on the track today.
Restrain carbon dioxide levels at 450 ppm figure will have other effects, such study estimates that climate instance.

Sea level rise due to the increase in heat because water temperatures warmed would be 14 centimeters (about 5.5 inches) instead of 22 centimeters (8.7 inches). Striking rise in sea level is expected to occur due to melting ice sheets and glaciers.
The volume of Arctic sea ice in summer shrank by a quarter and is expected to stabilize at the latest by 2100. A study has stated, summertime ice will disappear altogether this century if emissions remain at the current level.

Warming Arctic, will be cut in half, helping preserve fish populations and sea birds and marine mammals in the region as it is in the northern part of the Bering Sea.
Changes in regional snow prominently, including snow fall in the US Southwest and an increase in US Norhteast and Canada, will be reduced by half if the exhaust gas can be maintained at a level of 450 ppm.

The weather system will be stable until about 2100, and instead continue to warm. The research team used supercomputer simulations to compare scenarios regular events through a dramatic reduction in carbon dioxide emissions which starts in about a decade.
The study authors stressed that they did not examine how such a reduction can be achieved or suggest particular policy.

“Our goal is to provide policy makers appropriate research so they can make a decision after receiving the information,” said Washington.
“This study provides some hope that we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if people can reduce the waste in large quantities over the coming decades and continue major reductions throughout this century.”

Source (http://www.kompas.com)